Open Science & Tech Polymarket

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

$147K Vol. Closes Jun 10, 2026

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$147.3k Vol.

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$147K Vol.

1.10–1.14ºC

79% market probability

79%
Yes 79% +21 / −79 No 21% +79 / −21

<1.10ºC

16% market probability

16%
Yes 16% +84 / −16 No 84% +16 / −84

1.15–1.19ºC

3% market probability

3%
Yes 3% +97 / −3 No 97% +3 / −97

1.20–1.24ºC

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

1.25–1.29ºC

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

>1.29ºC

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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